The weekly operating capacity of alumina experienced a slight rebound, but supply still fell short of theoretical demand. [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 4.25

Futures: In the night session, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,878 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,884 yuan/mt, a low of 2,857 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,865 yuan/mt, up 7 yuan/mt, or 0.23%, with an open interest of 216,000 lots.

Ore: As of April 24, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $83.11/mt, down $3.77/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average was $83/mt, down $3/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average was $87/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average was $80/mt, flat from the previous trading day.

Spot Alumina: On Thursday, 2,000 mt of alumina was traded in Shandong at a transaction price of around 2,870 yuan/mt.

Industry News:

1. Weekly Alumina Production Dynamics: According to SMM data, as of Thursday, the national metallurgical-grade alumina existing capacity totaled 107.62 million mt/year, with operating capacity at 83.62 million mt/year, up 740,000 mt/year WoW, mainly due to the resumption of production after maintenance at some alumina refineries. The national alumina operating rate fell 1.22 percentage points WoW to 77.7%, mainly due to an increase in existing capacity.
2. Alumina Port Inventory: According to SMM statistics on April 24, domestic port alumina inventory totaled 55,000 mt, up 20,300 mt from the previous week.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Report: According to SMM data, on April 24, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 60 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 am.

Warrant Report: On April 24, the total registered alumina warrant volume decreased by 2,101 mt to 280,400 mt from the previous trading day. The total registered alumina warrant volume in Shandong remained flat at 3,307 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in Henan decreased by 302 mt to 6,300 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in Guangxi remained flat at 41,700 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in Gansu decreased by 602 mt to 14,400 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in Xinjiang decreased by 1,197 mt to 214,700 mt.

Overseas Market: As of April 24, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $348/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $20.50/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.32, translating to a domestic mainstream port selling price of around 3,126 yuan/mt, 234 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price, keeping the alumina import window closed.

Summary: This week, maintenance at some alumina refineries ended, and production resumed. Meanwhile, new maintenance and production cut news emerged, leading to both increases and decreases in alumina operating capacity. Overall, the weekly operating capacity rebounded slightly. As of Thursday, according to SMM statistics, the national alumina operating capacity was 83.62 million mt/year, up 740,000 mt/year WoW. Due to concentrated maintenance and production cuts, alumina operating capacity has been below the theoretical demand for aluminum production for several consecutive weeks, tightening spot alumina supply. As a result, spot alumina prices stopped falling, with a slight rebound in north China. Going forward, it is necessary to continuously track the resumption progress of alumina maintenance capacity, the commissioning progress of new capacity, and new maintenance and production cut news. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]